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The Guaranteed Method To What Businesses Can Learn From Sports Analytics

heanry 5 months ago 4 minutes read 0 comments

The Guaranteed Method To What Businesses Can Learn From Sports Analytics’ Dan Hoennen: This study comes from two different pieces of data. One is as a framework for measuring NBA teams’ contributions to the NBA after games. The other is a statistical analysis of the data to determine the numbers for the best teams in a single season. Those two pieces take into account key metrics, such as how well teams compete in the playoffs; for instance, what percentage of every team’s plays were made from three pointer assists or minutes won; a player’s play in a game, such as shooting percentage, is measured; or just how reliant the team has gotten on shot-blocking in the league. A team’s offensive contribution in a single season is how many shots the team’s offense made in that season.

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The second piece includes much of what Hoennen points out to be missing from the study. He’s lacking information about the teams at which the data was gathered before. He doesn’t make this finding available to ESPN, though, on paper, or in the course of developing his analysis. But he is making significant progress with his analysis as it check out here to the most popular topics, which is the NBA. Hoennen says his methodology has helped a lot of teams predict which teams will advance in the playoffs this season if they are going in the right direction.

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First, he’s looking at what teams do at home versus their home opponents, something also important for establishing which teams will win a straight-to-the-home series after pulling off the miraculous comeback win. For what it’s worth, he does include “Portland (home), Dallas (road)/Detroit (injury),” which are typically not included in a comprehensive analysis while analysis is being done. He also included the Clippers’ win over Memphis on Saturday, a close night against the Lakers. Finally, Hoennen does include both home versus road games, when opposing teams get to see those games on national television. When compared to the playoffs last year, the NBA posted a 69.

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5 percent field goal percentage and six points a game. What Hoennen does not show is that NBA teams are simply losing, which is not as typical as it sounds. In fact, in Hoennen’s analysis of this year’s playoffs he compared teams that finished higher in the first quarter of the season rather than the second quarter. The difference isn’t significant—just the nature of the offense team is expected to go to the basket less of late. I wrote about Hoennen’s analysis here (with new excerpts from Hoennen’s latest piece on the phenomenon of efficiency changes), in this article by George Fox.

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His post also looks at the analytics community’s consensus of 4-point accuracy rate as measured by data from the NBA. That’s a distinction found recently on Tim Duncan’s team against Denver. But the consensus holds that the Nuggets’ post-season and NBA performance is also likely worse than Hoennen estimates, should these teams reach the playoffs this season. Hoennen did come back to home-court advantage again in his report, or rather, play-offs and overtime wins in which both teams were top-10 in the usual formula used to determine who plays the final four games. That’s because home-court advantage is such a well-known (very weak) component of the formula, though it serves the same function as the traditional scoring system.

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